Numeration

Highly granular models using existing data for redesigning healthcare services

We have newly developed models which focus on service repatriation; demand and capacity planning; carbon footprint modeller; benchmarking and integrated care.

Numeration Systems has built a large scale and detailed model for the purpose of redesigning healthcare services using sophisticated algorithms and available and specific data streams to deliver accurate and granular information at all operational levels. Targeted at the healthcare and well-being sectors, the software enables a service operator to fully define, conceptualise and cost where and how it operates. Graphically, it can demonstrate, for instance, whether services are appropriately located to serve the regional or local demographic.

The aim of the model is simple: to give healthcare (and other) organisations and its management strategic control over its operations and demonstrate that economic viability and sustainability are mutually achievable. The model allows management to test ideas and strategies and measure outcomes in real time based on available data.

Numeration systems is field testing a cloud based social prescribing impact tool that allows Primary Care Providers to demonstrate the impact on their services of Social Prescribing. Social Prescribing acts as preventative or coping mechanisms which can improve the well-being of patients suffering from often chronic long-term conditions, e.g. using walking to assist with low mood or depression.

Our tool is populated with the known or likely effects of social prescribing initiatives on certain conditions (termed “Specialties”). It models through the effect of these initiatives on the Health Outcomes of the patients served by the Primary Care Service, as well as on the Service itself.

Data uploaded into the tool includes:

The population served by the Provider; the activity it undertakes by clinician type and Specialty
The Initiatives to be tried, their anticipated yearly growth and expected impact on each Specialty
The current hourly rate of pay of each member of staff of the Provider.

The Model uses data uploaded by the Provider to work out how services are currently run, e.g. the proportion of appointments seen by nurses (versus GPs). These values can be altered using “sliders” which drive the model.

It can cope with as many Initiatives as the Provider wants to trial AND each Initiative can impact on up to five medical conditions. So, for example, walking could impact depression, joint pain and asthma. In later model versions, this limit of five will be removed and second tier impacts will be introduced; for example, with walking potentially improving asthma, fewer respiratory infections might follow.

The Model calculates how carbon emissions are expended from current practice which are adapted from peer-review studies. These assumptions can be overwritten in the data files uploaded into the Model.

1. Demand: Understanding the underlying demands in the catchment area including trends and events.
2. Supply: Matching point of service delivery to demand.
3. Opportunities: Bringing (back) into the catchment area, additional viable services.
4. Non-medical: analysing the beneficial effect of non-medical intervention facilitated by GP intervention.
We will be the migrating the development models from their Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic forms to Microsoft R as a cloud based subscription or pay-per-use service. This will allow any GP Practice to input their own data and generate useful output at a time and circumstance of their choosing. We will concentrate on the on-going support and development of these and other models.
We are building a collaborative project to include academia as well as commercial partners to deliver this exciting and effective proposition.

Products

Products designed to shine a little light on the subject

Highly granular models using existing data for redesigning healthcare services

Social Prescribing Impact Tool

Primary Care Optimisation Modules